Cohort-survival projections built entirely from public data — ISBE enrollment, Census population, and TIGER district boundaries — for every Lake County school district: high‑school, elementary, and unit (K‑12). For high‑school districts, feeder elementary districts and their capture rates are derived from population‑weighted boundary overlap; no demographer's report required. Three scenarios bracket future housing turnover: A (low), B (expected), C (high), with a band width calibrated from each district's own historical enrollment volatility.
| School year | A — low | B — expected | C — high |
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Your incoming classes: each feeder's grades 6-8 over the next 10 years (grade 8 enters 9th grade the following fall).
| District | Capture |
|---|
Capture = share of the feeder district's students living inside the HS boundary (population-weighted).